In part 1 we saw how you can estimate difficult probabilities with a large number of simulations. Every time I updated that post my poor home desktop took 10 mins to run the simulation. And it still wasn’t good enough. Also, it doesn’t scale. 10 minutes times 100 ages times 2 sexes = NO.
As I just had another birthday with a ‘0’ at the end, I’m thinking about how long I have left.And it relates to other forecasts I could make, like will I ever pay off my student loans? The ONS publish national life tables under the OGL, so we have the data, and the permission to use it. And straight away I can see that the average UK 30-year old male has about 50 years left.